A) There is no known form of true Random in nature.
B) The markets are anything but random, but due to the manner by which market makers correlate trade operations to drive the markets, they are a continuum of repeat moves, altered by influences of migrating momentum which “Skews” the “appearance” of the market vertically and horizontally, making it “seem” random, to the eye.
C) Conventional statistical process analysis cannot work in trading as the amount of range between the least significant values, (ticks), makes reliable child sampling unable to predict accurate parent projection.
D) Megadroid claims it does not rely on prior data in it’s forecasting element. Sorry, there is nothing but prior data to use for forecasting. That statement proudly displayed in their offering is truly humorous, especially from any true AI perspective.
E) Reacting to and acting upon changes in market conditions, is a valid pursuit but in “most” conventional cases the degree of human analysis required, versus what the MT4 can offer reliably… Not any day soon, sorry.
F) Market forecasting is the same as any other “Attribute” related sampling / forecasting, but it does not tell you, nor can you ever know, “the next tick”. You can only measure and act upon derived “probabilities” which is a very successful attempt, until one fails to account for the “extraordinary” events in the market, such as news extremes and other even less timely events.
G) There is truly only ONE order type in Forex, which is the “Limit” order. All other forms of order types are “contrived inventions” operating downstream, subject to both slippage and manipulation.
H) Given G above, any system which ever relies on order types other than limit orders… can never be deemed reliable or “in control”. That does not mean they cannot make a profit quite reliably, only that the reliability is subject to devastating exposures and given probability those exposures WILL occur.

Conclusion, among the empirical truths above, one now has all the necessary information to design a system which can capitalize on the methods available and avoid the pitfalls that can destroy success.

Do the work. Good luck.

AFP

Thanks for your comment, and for the one on my blog. Our backtest used the GMT offset settings recommended for our broker in version 1.11 of the Forex Megadroid manual. What do you think we should have used instead?

I’d love to take a look at some more impressive results for the Droid in May. Can you please provide a link?

How do you come to the conclusion that our “bot” has a drawdown of 80%? How do you come to the conclusion that I recommend trading that system? It does after all come complete with the warning that “This expert is for educational purposes only. It should NEVER be used on a live account.”

What I actually recommend is that you should D.Y.O.R. (and lots of it) Keep up the good work!

Jim

if i backtest may i get profit on alpari uk with gmtoffset “1″ as recommended in manual for backtesting.
you just suck in what you are doing.

Thanks for your comment, and it’s my pleasure! As the old saying puts it “One swallow doesn’t make a summer”, and one bad month doesn’t necessarily make a bad system. In fact for me, it’s highly suspicious if a system never seems to have a drawdown. For the MegaDroid, however, it’s also suspicious that the “live” results on their site don’t show the drawdown evident in our own tests.

Jim

Thank you,
Adam